How the bookies see Beijing

[BruceFlorman]

Not that I'm endorsing online gambling or anything like that, but it was interesting to see the Vegas line for the PV competitions:

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Beijing Olympics 2008 - Atheltics - Mens Pole Vault Gold Medal Winner.

Brad Walker        (USA)  7/5 
Evgeniy Lukyanenko (RUS)  2/1 
Steve Hooker       (AUS)  7/2 
Maksym Mazuryk     (UKR) 14/1 
Denys Yurchenko    (UKR) 14/1 
Sergey Kucheryanu  (RUS) 14/1 
Derek Miles        (USA) 20/1 
Giovanni Lanaro    (MEX) 25/1 
Raphael Holzdeppe  (GER) 33/1 
Tim Lobinger       (GER) 33/1 
Igor Pavlov        (RUS) 40/1 

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Beijing Olympics 2008 - Atheltics - Womens Pole Vault Gold Medal Winner.

Yelena Isinbayeva     (RUS)  1/6 
Jennifer Stuczynski   (USA) 13/2 
Fabiana Murer         (BRA) 16/1 
Svetlana Feofanova    (RUS) 16/1 
Yuliya Golubchikova   (RUS) 20/1 
Monika Pyrek          (POL) 20/1 
Anna Rogowska         (POL) 20/1 
April Steiner Bennett (USA) 50/1 
Erica Bartolina       (USA) 50/1 
Tatyana Polnova       (RUS) 50/1 

source
summary for all T&F events

Interestingly, as of today anyway, Isi does NOT have the shortest odds among all T&F athletes. Blanka Vlasic's odds in the HJ are currently 1/8, while Usain Bolt is also 1/6 in the 200m.

One thing we might want to remember about all this though is that the odds don't necessarily reflect the oddsmakers' belief in the actual outcome, but rather the oddsmakers' belief in how the public will bet. As a general rule, the books don't want to be gambling at all. When betting closes, their aim is to have the same amount of money wagered on each side of the competition. That way they pay the winners ~90% of what they collect from the losers, regardless of who wins or loses.

[VaultPurple]

I like the way the odds look for a guy like Derek Miles or Tim Lobinger, someone could make good money if the conditions were right for one of them to upset.

[KirkB]

The way to beat the odds is to know some inside secret about either a vaulter that's about to have a breakthru (like Erica Bartolina had in the Trials), or if you happen to know that the favorites are all injured. But it's not just that. You also have to be ONE OF VERY FEW PEOPLE that know this inside info. If the bookmaker knows this inside info, he will adjust the odds to compensate. And believe me, they keep very close track of injuries. At least in setting football odds.

Look at the odds, using the common denominator "14" for the top 6 male vaulters ...

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Brad Walker        (USA) 14/10
Evgeniy Lukyanenko (RUS) 14/7 
Steve Hooker       (AUS) 14/4 
Maksym Mazuryk     (UKR) 14/1 
Denys Yurchenko    (UKR) 14/1 
Sergey Kucheryanu  (RUS) 14/1

Notice that Hooker is 4 times more likely to win than the last 3. Those are high odds. The bookmaker is almost declaring that the 3 medals are pre-determined.

We all know that even the best vaulter in the world will NH occasionally. That's where the bets get risky. Odds are that 1 of the top 3 might NH. But the only way for Miles or Hartwig to win would be if Walker, Luky, and Hooker all have a bad day. Not necessarily a NH, but perhaps getting behind on misses, then passing too aggressively. That's where a dark horse can sneak in for a medal.

And Walker actually did make a mistake in London on his passing strategy, didn't he? However, I'd guess that he's learned his lesson on that one!

GO BRAD!!!

Kirk

[Pogo Stick]

Interestingly, as of today anyway, Isi does NOT have the shortest odds among all T&F athletes. Blanka Vlasic's odds in the HJ are currently 1/8

Little bit of local patriotism: I will gladly lose some money on Blanka's gold.

[rainbowgirl28]

And Walker actually did make a mistake in London on his passing strategy, didn't he?

No, nothing about him passing affected the placements. He passed when he knew that clearing the height would not make him place any higher.

[roger/over]

Interesting, that those super-smart bookies would quote odds of four Russian women in the vault, when only three can compete. Or is there some question about one of their top three being ready? (All four are currently in the world top ten!)

Incidentally, I have the fourth-ranked Russian on my file of current national record holders. Anyone want to tell us how that can be?